Eurovision 2026 Semi-Final 1 Predictions (After Rehearsals)

The first semi-final of Eurovision 2026 will be held on Tuesday, May 12th, at 21:00 CET.
15 countries will compete on 10 spots in the final.
In this article, we will try to predict who will qualify for the final.

The running order for semi-final 1:

• 1. 🇲🇩 Moldova: Satoshi – Viva, Moldova
• 2. 🇸🇪 Sweden: FELICIA – My System
• 3. 🇭🇷 Croatia: LELEK – ANDROMEDA
• 4. 🇬🇷 Greece: Akylas – Ferto
• 5. 🇵🇹 Portugal: Bandidos do Cante – Rosa
• 6. 🇬🇪 Georgia: Bzikebi – On Replay
• AQ. 🇮🇹 Italy: Sal Da Vinci – Per sempre sì
• 7.🇫🇮 Finland: Linda Lampenius x Pete Parkkonen – Liekinheitin
• 8. 🇲🇪 Montenegro: Tamara Živković – Nova Zora
• 9. 🇪🇪 Estonia: Vanilla Ninja – Too Epic To Be True
• 10. 🇮🇱 Israel: Noam Bettan – Michelle
• AQ. 🇩🇪 Germany: Sarah Engels – Fire
• 11. 🇧🇪 Belgium: ESSYLA – Dancing on the Ice
• 12. 🇱🇹 Lithuania: Lion Ceccah – Sólo Quiero Más
• 13. 🇸🇲 San Marino: Senhit feat. Boy George – Superstar
• 14. 🇵🇱 Poland: ALICJA – Pray
• 15. 🇷🇸 Serbia: LAVINA – Kraj mene

1.🇲🇩 Moldova: Satoshi – Viva, Moldova

• Moldova plays the national anthem card this year, with wide influences of folk music.
• It is a pulsing, arena-rock, and hip-hop song with rap elements.
• In the past, such songs have performed really well in the public vote, and it won’t be any different this year.
• The performance will deliver fun and celebration, with 2 female backing singers and 3 backing dancers.
• However, I am not sure it will do that well with the jury.
• Moldova will probably get the support of some of the Balkan/Eastern/diaspora countries voting in this semi-final: Greece, Croatia, Serbia, Montenegro, Georgia, Lithuania and Israel.
• Prediction: Qualifying for the final

2. 🇸🇪 Sweden: FELICIA –  My System

• Felicia will represent Sweden this year with an EDM club song.
• It is a high-octane, “ecclesiastical” dance anthem that channels the high-energy spirit of Cascada and modern Norwegian pop. 
• The song will stand out due to its beat and flow, as well as the electrifying performance.
• As long as the vocals and energy are precised, it can do well.
• In addition, Sweden has almost always qualified for the final (except for 2010), and I see the qualification streak continues.
• Prediction: Qualifying for the final

3.🇭🇷 Croatia: LELEK – ANDROMEDA

• It is a heavy, ethno-industrial anthem that blends ancient Balkan folklore with aggressive modern production.
• The performance relies on strong visual moments, most of them based on the chemistry between the band members and the video effects.
• It brings drama combined with folk, two deliverables that have been well appreciated in the past.
• I think the jury will appreciate their vocals and storytelling.
• I can see Serbia and Montenegro ranking this in their top 3, as well as Moldova and Greece, which would grant some points.
• They continue the sequence of sisterhood entries, like Czechia 2023 an Latvia 2025, both of them have done quite good.
• Prediction: Qualifying for the final

4.🇬🇷 Greece: Akylas – Ferto

• It is a chaotic, “techno-folk” song with rap elements.
• Overall, Akylas uses his voice to navigate between madness and sincerity, creating a “drama-techno” moment. The song suggests some uniqueness, and it is quite entertaining. In some parts, I feel like the song is a bit too engineered to the Eurovision funny entry formula (Käärijä, Baby Lasagna, etc).
• It is made of the material of songs which has done really well in recent years. However, it won’t necessarily be the same with the jury votes.
• The staging will serve as an arcade video game with backing dancers, some props and colorful graphics.
• Prediction: Qualifying for the final

5.🇵🇹 Portugal: Bandidos do Cante – Rosa

• It is a raw, minimalist Neo-Fado piece rooted in Portuguese polyphonic traditions.
• The song mainly relies on A-Capella singing, with minimalistic production.
• It is a kind of song that requires the right vibe to connect with.
• They are good vocalists, but will it be enough? I am afraid they will be forgotten among other acts.
• This is the only (or almost only) slow ballads in the first half of semi-final, so it might help a bit.
• I am not convinced the song has a large enough fan base to push through, but it might surprise us. They will probably do much better with the jury
• Prediction: Borderline, most likely not to qualify

6.🇬🇪 Georgia: Bzikebi – On Replay

• It is a quirky, avant-garde electro-swing track that feels like a modern update to their signature sound.
• The band won Junior Eurovision Song Contest in 2008.
• The staging concept
• It’s mostly a track, not a by-the-book song. The electronic drop and the backing chanting are the most important components, leaving a smaller space for the vocals.
• Their performance features rich neon lasers to enhance the song’s electrifying power. Those lasers are white, pink and purple,
• However, the vocals are a bit underwhelming and shaky.
• Sadly, it seems that the song has lost traction as time has passed.
• Prediction: Borderline, most likely not to qualify

7.🇫🇮 Finland: Linda Lampenius x Pete Parkkonen – Liekinheitin

• It is a grand, symphonic-rock song that blends stadium rock with classical violin.
• The staging serves the drama and the title (flame thrower) by a wooden confessional box, with dramatic lights, as well as flames, overturned chairs, and sheet-music stands of what looks like an orchestra area.
• This is a “heavyweight” entry. It feels expensive, professional, and very Eurovision-right. The combination of Pete’s charisma and Linda’s legendary status makes this the one to beat. 
• Currently, Finland leads the odds to win Eurovision 2026.
• Prediction: Qualifying for the final

8.🇲🇪 Montenegro: Tamara Živković – Nova Zora

• It is a techno trap pop song. The song opens with electronic production.
• It focuses on the transition from the “long night” (sorrow or stagnation) to the first light of day
• Tamara will be accompanied by 4 female backing dancers.
• The performance features different scenes, with diverse lighting and bold facial expressions.
• On one hand, it is one of the best Montenegrin songs in the Eurovision.
• On the other hand, Montenegro tends to struggle to qualify for the final. Their 2 recent qualification were in 2014 and 2015.
• They might get friendly support from Serbia and Montenegro, which together might grant them around 40 points.
• However, I am afraid the dark performance, as well as her vocals in the jury show, will distance her from qualifying.
• Prediction: Borderline

9. 🇪🇪 Estonia: Vanilla Ninja – Too Epic To Be True

• It is a 2000s-based, high-energy pop-rock track that pays homage to the band’s roots.
• The performance is staged as a classic stadium rock band performance.
• There’s something naive and catchy in this one. However, I am not sure it is competitive enough.
• I can see it picking some points from here and there, but will it be enough?
• Prediction: Borderline, most likely not to qualify

10. 🇮🇱 Israel: Noam Bettan –  Michelle

• It is a moody, trilingual “Drama-Pop” mid-tempo pop song.
• Noam will be accompanied by 5 female dancers, with a big diamond prop presented on the stage.
• Noam will stand out with his raspy, powerful voice.
• The song is quite dynamic, combining 3 languages, with a repetitive and effective chorus.
• As in previous years, we can expect thoughtful staging concept.
• However, the performance might be interrupted by audience booing.
• The political climate might once again lead to significant gaps between the public and the jury votes.
• Prediction: Qualifying for the final

11.🇧🇪 Belgium: ESSYLA – Dancing on the Ice

• It is a sophisticated, Scandi-electronic art-pop track performed in English.
• The song is radio-friendly, and for the first time in years, Belgium has managed to come with a solid staging.
• However, I am afraid the song won’t resonate strongly enough with the public.
• In addition, I am afraid that, as sweet and humble as Essyla is, she lacks some stage presence and charisma.
• Prediction: Borderline

12.🇱🇹 Lithuania: Lion Ceccah – Sólo Quiero Más

• It is a dark, experimental alt-pop track that blends industrial electronics with an avant-garde linguistic fusion and some light opera influences.
• It is visually different (who else will paint himself silver?) and, sonically, therefore has a better chance of being remembered.
• Lithuania usually enjoys diaspora and friendly voting, but it seems those will be limited this time: Ireland doesn’t participate this year, and the UK and Latvia are allocated to perform in the second semi-final. However, they still got Poland, Germany and Estonia voting in this semi-final.
• The performance is Eurovision-ready and will feature a bold prop: A costume installation created especially for the performance, which dramatically falls apart right on stage.
• In theory, the jury should support it (even though they usually don’t, when it comes to Lithuania)
• I am a bit nervous that this one can lead to a shocking non-qualification, as being too artistic or due to “over-powerful/pushing” vocals.
• Prediction: Likely to qualify for the final, but can be a shocking non-qualifier

13.🇸🇲 San Marino: Senhit feat. Boy George – Superstar

• It is a glossy, high-glam disco-pop track. The song starts with a shimmering “stardust” synth effect and a classic 1970s and 1980s-inspired “four-on-the-floor” house beat.
• San Marino will compete with a fun entry, but it isn’t really bold enough.
• The staging is somehow messy, but very engaging, colorful and budgetful.
• Vocally, it isn’t brilliant.
• Having said this, the performance delivers 3 minutes of fun that might actually click with the audience more than expected. The fun-based performance might grab the public’s attention.
• Prediction: Borderline

14.🇵🇱 Poland: ALICJA – Pray

• It is a sophisticated R&B-Gospel track with heavy contemporary trap production and some rap parts.
• Similarly to Lithuania, Poland usually enjoys diaspora voting, which will be limited in this semi-final.
• ALICJA is one of the most powerful vocalists this year, and will deliver for sure.
• However, I am not sure the song will hit waves in the public vote. The fusion of different genres might confuse some people. Let’s not forget that Gospel music isn’t well respected in Eurovision.
• I can see the jury appreciating it, but the problem is that the jury usually doesn’t for Poland.
• The considerably late allocation might push it a bit higher.
• Prediction: Borderline

15.🇷🇸 Serbia: LAVINA – Kraj mene

• It is a dark, atmospheric alt-pop piece infused with Balkan influences, but now clearly layered with industrial and metal elements that give it a far more aggressive edge.
• The performance it dark and mysterious.
• Luke, the lead singer, will interact with the camera, and will sing in growling towards the end.
• The history made us learn the bold rock and metal songs can do pretty well in the contest, usually making the genre fans, picking their phones and vote for them.
• Let’s not forget that Serbia has both Croatia and Montenegro voting in this semi-final, increasing their chances to qualify even more.
• Closing the show will also make it more memorable.
• Prediction: Qualifying for the final

Certain Qualifiers

These 8 countries I can see as certain qualifiers:

• 🇫🇮 Finland: Linda Lampenius x Pete Parkkonen – Liekinheitin
• 🇸🇪 Sweden: FELICIA – My System
• 🇬🇷 Greece: Akylas – Ferto
• 🇮🇱 Israel: Noam Bettan – Michelle
• 🇲🇩 Moldova: Satoshi – Viva, Moldova
• 🇭🇷 Croatia: LELEK – ANDROMEDA
• 🇷🇸 Serbia: LAVINA – Kraj mene
• 🇱🇹 Lithuania: Lion Ceccah – Sólo Quiero Más

Borderline

I can see 2 of these countries qualifying, while the 2 remaining won’t qualify:

• 🇲🇪 Montenegro: Tamara Živković – Nova Zora
• 🇧🇪 Belgium: ESSYLA – Dancing on the Ice
• 🇸🇲 San Marino: Senhit feat. Boy George – Superstar
• 🇵🇱 Poland: ALICJA –Pray

Non Qualifiers

Sadly, I believe those 3 countries will struggle to qualify

• 🇵🇹 Portugal: Bandidos do Cante – Rosa
• 🇬🇪 Georgia: Bzikebi – On Replay
• 🇪🇪 Estonia: Vanilla Ninja –Too Epic To Be True

If I have to reduce my list to 10 countries only:

1. 🇫🇮 Finland: Linda Lampenius x Pete Parkkonen – Liekinheitin
2. 🇸🇪 Sweden: FELICIA – My System
3. 🇬🇷 Greece: Akylas – Ferto
4. 🇮🇱 Israel: Noam Bettan – Michelle
5. 🇲🇩 Moldova: Satoshi – Viva, Moldova
6. 🇭🇷 Croatia: LELEK – ANDROMEDA
7. 🇷🇸 Serbia: LAVINA – Kraj mene
8. 🇱🇹 Lithuania: Lion Ceccah – Sólo Quiero Más
9. 🇵🇱 Poland: ALICJA – Pray
10. 🇸🇲 San Marino: Senhit feat. Boy George – Superstar

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