Eurovision 2025: Semi-Final 1 Predictions

Doron Lahav

1 year ago

Semi-Final 1 of Eurovision 2025 will occur on Tuesday, May 13th at 21:00 CET.
15 countries will compete for 10 spots in the final.
The results will be based on a 100% public vote.

🇮🇸Iceland: VÆB – RÓA
🇵🇱Poland: Justyna Steczkowska – Gaja
🇸🇮Slovenia: Klemen – How Much Time Do We Have Left
🇪🇪Estonia: Tommy Cash – Espresso Macchiato
🇺🇦Ukraine: Ziferblat – Bird of Pray
🇸🇪Sweden: KAJ – Bara bada bastu
🇵🇹Portugal: NAPA – Deslocado
🇳🇴Norway: Kyle Alessandro – Lighter
🇧🇪Belgium: Red Sebastian – Strobe lights
🇦🇿Azerbaijan: Mamagama – Run With U
🇸🇲San Marino: Gabry Ponte – Tutta l’Italia
🇦🇱Albania: Shkodra Elektronike – Zjerm
🇳🇱The Netherlands: Claude – C’est La Vie
🇭🇷Croatia: Marko Bošnjak – Poison Cake
🇨🇾Cyprus: Theo Evan – Shh

#1. 🇮🇸 Iceland: VÆB – RÓA

The VÆB siblings will perform an Euro dance song in the Icelandic language.
They bring a contagious energy and some questionable vocals.
On one hand, that kind of song has its audience. However, this genre was more popular around 2005-2010.
Opening the semi-final can make them more memorable. Nevertheless, they might be challenged by some entertaining songs in the same semi-final (Sweden and Estonia).
Prediction: Borderline (Around 8-12 in the semi-final)

#2. 🇵🇱Poland: Justyna Steczkowska – Gaja

Justyna Steczkowska returns to the contest after 30 years.
She will perform a powerful ethnic pop song, performed in Polish and English.
Poland was allocated in the 2nd position, which is difficult to qualify from.
However, the song is quite memorable, and the staging is eye-catching. The performance includes descending from the ceiling, dynamic dancing, and big vocals.
Poland will enjoy the benefit on being on the minority of female vocalists in this semi-final (together with Albania).
Prediction: Qualifying for the final

#3. 🇸🇮Slovenia: Klemen – How Much Time Do We Have Left

Klemen performs an intimate emotional ballad, dedicated to his wife who coped with incurable disease.
The text is quite straightforward.
The song is quite simple, and one of the only ballads in this semi-final. The peak of the performance is when he sings upside down.
However, the song isn’t competitive enough, especially when it was allocated between 2 bold performances.
Slovenia usually struggles in public voting. Their only friendly-voting country in this semi-final is Croatia.
However, this is the only ballad in the first half of semi-final 1, and people might find a comfort zone in this song, between al the upbeat songs.
Prediction: Likely not to qualify, but might be a surprise qualifier

#4. 🇪🇪 Estonia: Tommy Cash – Espresso Macchiato

Estonia chose an “entertaining” song for Eurovision 2025, represented by Tommy Cash with a song dedicated to coffee (and not only).
Backed by bodyguards and spaghetti dance moves, he will try to impress the voters.
This is a clear, public-vote-friendly song.
The vocals are the weakest aspect of the song, but it seems it doesn’t matter.
On the other hand, the beat and the melody make it catchy.
Such a “joke” entries, usually sail through the final easily.
Prediction: Qualifying for the final

#5. 🇺🇦 Ukraine: Ziferblat – Bird of Pray

Ukraine has decided to step into a different direction this year, with a more Indie genre.
The genre isn’t that popular, and doesn’t bring the “folk” flavour that Ukraine usually does.
Having saying so, the song is quite unique (in the sense that we have nothing similar to this).
We can’t ignore that the current political climate stands with Ukraine, and for sure, it will help.
Ukraine has always qualified for the final so far.
Prediction: Qualifying for the final

#6. 🇸🇪Sweden: KAJ – Bara bada bastu

For the first time in many years, Sweden sends a song in the Swedish language.
Sweden is one of the most successful countries in the contest, which tends to finish in the top 10. This year, they are also leading the betting odds to win.
The song turns out to be one of the iconic songs of this year’s contest. They will bring a true Scandinavian party to Basel.
The accordion and upbeat chords create a safe path to get the public support and sail through the final.
Prediction: Qualifying for the final

#7. 🇵🇹Portugal: NAPA – Deslocado

Portugal will be represented by NAPA. They will perform a soft indie rock ballad in the local language.
While the song has a meaningful text, it seems that the whole experience remains quite flat.
It is a kind of song that will speak more to the jury, rather than the public.
Sadly, the jury doesn’t vote in the semi-finals.
Nevertheless, the song is allocated between 2 memorable performances: Sweden and Norway.
Prediction: Not Qualifying

#8. 🇳🇴Norway: Kyle Alessandro – Lighter

We have it every year: A decent pop song with a slick performance.
As expected, the performance will feature a dance routine, supported by backing dancers.
The song is quite radio-friendly, but as the same time a bit generic.
That kind of song usually manages to qualify. In addition, Norway has a strong record of qualifications (2012-2015, 2017-2024), which might help.
Prediction: Qualifying for the final

#9. 🇧🇪 Belgium: Red Sebastian – Strobe lights

It one of the 2 EDM songs competing in semi-final 1 (together with Cyprus).
You will get red, red, and a bit more red in the performance. But at the same time, the visuals are on point.
The song sounds like a tribute to an electro dance club from the 1990s.
He manages to perform it quite well, even though the song is demanding and challenging.
EDM songs usually struggle in the contest, but it seems that the performance is well executed.
However, I am worried that too much red staging might make it a bit inaccessible.
Prediction: Qualifying for the final

#10. 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan: Mamagama – Run With U

Mamagama will perform a disco-dance song with oriental elements.
Sadly, Azerbaijan has struggled to qualify in recent years, with their last qualification in 2022 (and then it was thanks to the jury).
The song is radio-friendly and quite different from the others, but the overall reception is limited.
Nevertheless, this semi-final has several male groups (Sweden, Portugal, Ukraine, San Marino, Azerbaijan) and not all of them will qualify for the final.
Prediction: Not Qualifying

#11. 🇸🇲 San Marino: Gabry Ponte – Tutta l’Italia

It is a fusion of traditional Italian music with dance and electronic music.
The vocalists behind the song are anonymous, and will perform behind a mask.
While the song has done great in the streaming platforms, I am not sure about the live performance concept.
I feat that the masked singer might create distance between the viewers and the song.
In addition, DJ songs usually don’t do well.
I see a “messy” performance potential here.
Prediction: Borderline (Around 8-12 in the semi-final)

#12. 🇦🇱 Albania: Shkodra Elektronike – Zjerm

Albania will be represented by Shkodra Elektronike, who will perform an electro-folk song, full of character and style.
For Albania, sending such a unique song can be a game changer.
As for the performance, one of the most memorable moments in the Vogue dancing done by Beatriçe (the lead singer).
Albania is one of the 2 countries to be represented by a female vocalist in semi-final 1 (together with Poland), and therefore its chance to standout are even bigger.
Electro-folk songs tend to go well with the public (Ukraine 2021 for example).
Prediction: Qualifying for the final

#13. 🇳🇱The Netherlands: Claude – C’est La Vie

It is a mid-tempo ballad, performed in French and English.
The lyrics (in both languages) are brought in simple words (I would even say clichés).
The song has a radio friendly quality, which might make people for this.
However, I must admit that the performance is a bit disappointing.
It should be enough for qualification, unless the performance goes abysmal.
Prediction: Qualifying for the final

#14. 🇭🇷Croatia: Marko Bošnjak – Poison Cake

It is a dark pop song.
The song transitions between many different parts, not always related.
Some of the parts are quite childish, while others are more quirky.
The main problem here is that the song has a questionable structure, with a messy stage performance.
Towards the end, he is off-key.
I can’t see the audience for this song pushing it to the top 10.
Prediction: Not Qualifying

#15. 🇨🇾 Cyprus: Theo Evan – Shh

Theo Evan will perform an EDM song.
Its biggest competition will probably be Belgium, who delivers a song in a similar genre.
The performance features 2 main props: Two scaffolding towers, which create a memorable and impressive moment visually.
The performance refers to Da Vinci’s Vitruvian Man.
Closing the semi-final is a pimp spot, which will increase its chances.
Having said so, I was quite disappointed with the vocals and the camera angles.
Prediction: Qualifying for the final (MIGHT BE a surprise Non-Qualifier)

Prediction

I believe that 9 certain qualifiers are:

🇸🇪Sweden: KAJ – Bara bada bastu
🇺🇦Ukraine: Ziferblat – Bird of Pray
🇦🇱Albania: Shkodra Elektronike – Zjerm
🇧🇪Belgium: Red Sebastian – Strobe lights
🇳🇱The Netherlands: Claude – C’est La Vie
🇵🇱Poland: Justyna Steczkowska – Gaja
🇪🇪Estonia: Tommy Cash – Espresso Macchiato
🇮🇸Iceland: VÆB – RÓA
🇳🇴Norway: Kyle Alessandro – Lighter

One of the following acts will qualify as well:

🇨🇾Cyprus: Theo Evan – Shh
🇸🇲San Marino: Gabry Ponte – Tutta l’Italia

Meanwhile, we might have a not-so-likely surprise from Slovenia: Klemen – How Much Time Do We Have Left

If I have to choose only 10, I will put:

🇸🇪Sweden: KAJ – Bara bada bastu
🇺🇦Ukraine: Ziferblat – Bird of Pray
🇦🇱Albania: Shkodra Elektronike – Zjerm
🇧🇪Belgium: Red Sebastian – Strobe lights
🇳🇱The Netherlands: Claude – C’est La Vie
🇵🇱Poland: Justyna Steczkowska – Gaja
🇪🇪Estonia: Tommy Cash – Espresso Macchiato
🇳🇴Norway: Kyle Alessandro – Lighter
🇮🇸Iceland: VÆB – RÓA
🇸🇲San Marino: Gabry Ponte – Tutta l’Italia

What is your prediction for the 10 qualifiers?

Eurovision 2025 will be held in Basel, Switzerland on the 13th, 15th, and 17th of May 2025.
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