Eurovision 2025: Semi-Final 1 Predictions

Semi-Final 1 of Eurovision 2025 will occur on Tuesday, May 13th at 21:00 CET.
15 countries will compete for 10 spots in the final.
The results will be based on a 100% public vote.

1. 🇮🇸Iceland: VÆB – RÓA
2. 🇵🇱Poland: Justyna Steczkowska – Gaja
3. 🇸🇮Slovenia: Klemen – How Much Time Do We Have Left
4. 🇪🇪Estonia: Tommy Cash – Espresso Macchiato
5. 🇺🇦Ukraine: Ziferblat – Bird of Pray
6. 🇸🇪Sweden: KAJ – Bara bada bastu
7. 🇵🇹Portugal: NAPA – Deslocado
8. 🇳🇴Norway: Kyle Alessandro – Lighter
9. 🇧🇪Belgium: Red Sebastian – Strobe lights
10. 🇦🇿Azerbaijan: Mamagama – Run With U 
11.  🇸🇲San Marino: Gabry Ponte – Tutta l’Italia
12. 🇦🇱Albania: Shkodra Elektronike – Zjerm
13. 🇳🇱The Netherlands: Claude – C’est La Vie
14. 🇭🇷Croatia: Marko Bošnjak – Poison Cake
15. 🇨🇾Cyprus: Theo Evan – Shh

#1. 🇮🇸 Iceland: VÆB – RÓA

• The VÆB siblings will perform an Euro dance song in the Icelandic language.
• They bring a contagious energy and some questionable vocals.
• On one hand, that kind of song has its audience. However, this genre was more popular around 2005-2010.
• Opening the semi-final can make them more memorable. Nevertheless, they might be challenged by some entertaining songs in the same semi-final (Sweden and Estonia).
• Prediction: Borderline (Around 8-12 in the semi-final)

#2. 🇵🇱Poland: Justyna Steczkowska – Gaja

• Justyna Steczkowska returns to the contest after 30 years.
• She will perform a powerful ethnic pop song, performed in Polish and English.
• Poland was allocated in the 2nd position, which is difficult to qualify from.
• However, the song is quite memorable, and the staging is eye-catching. The performance includes descending from the ceiling, dynamic dancing, and big vocals.
• Poland will enjoy the benefit on being on the minority of female vocalists in this semi-final (together with Albania).
• Prediction: Qualifying for the final

#3. 🇸🇮Slovenia: Klemen – How Much Time Do We Have Left

• Klemen performs an intimate emotional ballad, dedicated to his wife who coped with incurable disease.
• The text is quite straightforward.
• The song is quite simple, and one of the only ballads in this semi-final. The peak of the performance is when he sings upside down.
• However, the song isn’t competitive enough, especially when it was allocated between 2 bold performances.
• Slovenia usually struggles in public voting. Their only friendly-voting country in this semi-final is Croatia.
• However, this is the only ballad in the first half of semi-final 1, and people might find a comfort zone in this song, between al the upbeat songs.
• Prediction: Likely not to qualify, but might be a surprise qualifier

#4. 🇪🇪 Estonia: Tommy Cash – Espresso Macchiato

• Estonia chose an “entertaining” song for Eurovision 2025, represented by Tommy Cash with a song dedicated to coffee (and not only).
• Backed by bodyguards and spaghetti dance moves, he will try to impress the voters.
• This is a clear, public-vote-friendly song.
• The vocals are the weakest aspect of the song, but it seems it doesn’t matter.
• On the other hand, the beat and the melody make it catchy.
• Such a “joke” entries, usually sail through the final easily.
• Prediction: Qualifying for the final

#5. 🇺🇦 Ukraine: Ziferblat – Bird of Pray

• Ukraine has decided to step into a different direction this year, with a more Indie genre.
• The genre isn’t that popular, and doesn’t bring the “folk” flavour that Ukraine usually does.
• Having saying so, the song is quite unique (in the sense that we have nothing similar to this).
• We can’t ignore that the current political climate stands with Ukraine, and for sure, it will help.
• Ukraine has always qualified for the final so far.
• Prediction: Qualifying for the final

#6. 🇸🇪Sweden: KAJ – Bara bada bastu

• For the first time in many years, Sweden sends a song in the Swedish language.
• Sweden is one of the most successful countries in the contest, which tends to finish in the top 10. This year, they are also leading the betting odds to win.
• The song turns out to be one of the iconic songs of this year’s contest. They will bring a true Scandinavian party to Basel.
• The accordion and upbeat chords create a safe path to get the public support and sail through the final.
• Prediction: Qualifying for the final

#7. 🇵🇹Portugal: NAPA – Deslocado

• Portugal will be represented by NAPA. They will perform a soft indie rock ballad in the local language.
• While the song has a meaningful text, it seems that the whole experience remains quite flat.
• It is a kind of song that will speak more to the jury, rather than the public.
• Sadly, the jury doesn’t vote in the semi-finals.
• Nevertheless, the song is allocated between 2 memorable performances: Sweden and Norway.
• Prediction: Not Qualifying

#8. 🇳🇴Norway: Kyle Alessandro – Lighter

• We have it every year: A decent pop song with a slick performance.
• As expected, the performance will feature a dance routine, supported by backing dancers.
• The song is quite radio-friendly, but as the same time a bit generic.
• That kind of song usually manages to qualify. In addition, Norway has a strong record of qualifications (2012-2015, 2017-2024), which might help.
• Prediction: Qualifying for the final

#9. 🇧🇪 Belgium: Red Sebastian – Strobe lights

• It one of the 2 EDM songs competing in semi-final 1 (together with Cyprus).
• You will get red, red, and a bit more red in the performance. But at the same time, the visuals are on point.
• The song sounds like a tribute to an electro dance club from the 1990s.
• He manages to perform it quite well, even though the song is demanding and challenging.
• EDM songs usually struggle in the contest, but it seems that the performance is well executed.
• However, I am worried that too much red staging might make it a bit inaccessible.
• Prediction: Qualifying for the final

#10. 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan: Mamagama – Run With U 

• Mamagama will perform a disco-dance song with oriental elements.
• Sadly, Azerbaijan has struggled to qualify in recent years, with their last qualification in 2022 (and then it was thanks to the jury).
• The song is radio-friendly and quite different from the others, but the overall reception is limited.
• Nevertheless, this semi-final has several male groups (Sweden, Portugal, Ukraine, San Marino, Azerbaijan) and not all of them will qualify for the final.
• Prediction: Not Qualifying

#11. 🇸🇲 San Marino: Gabry Ponte – Tutta l’Italia

• It is a fusion of traditional Italian music with dance and electronic music.
• The vocalists behind the song are anonymous, and will perform behind a mask.
• While the song has done great in the streaming platforms, I am not sure about the live performance concept.
• I feat that the masked singer might create distance between the viewers and the song.
• In addition, DJ songs usually don’t do well.
• I see a “messy” performance potential here.
• Prediction: Borderline (Around 8-12 in the semi-final)

#12. 🇦🇱 Albania: Shkodra Elektronike – Zjerm

• Albania will be represented by Shkodra Elektronike, who will perform an electro-folk song, full of character and style.
• For Albania, sending such a unique song can be a game changer.
• As for the performance, one of the most memorable moments in the Vogue dancing done by Beatriçe (the lead singer).
• Albania is one of the 2 countries to be represented by a female vocalist in semi-final 1 (together with Poland), and therefore its chance to standout are even bigger.
• Electro-folk songs tend to go well with the public (Ukraine 2021 for example).
• Prediction: Qualifying for the final

#13. 🇳🇱The Netherlands: Claude – C’est La Vie

• It is a mid-tempo ballad, performed in French and English.
• The lyrics (in both languages) are brought in simple words (I would even say clichés).
• The song has a radio friendly quality, which might make people for this.
• However, I must admit that the performance is a bit disappointing.
• It should be enough for qualification, unless the performance goes abysmal.
• Prediction: Qualifying for the final

#14. 🇭🇷Croatia: Marko Bošnjak – Poison Cake

• It is a dark pop song.
• The song transitions between many different parts, not always related.
• Some of the parts are quite childish, while others are more quirky.
• The main problem here is that the song has a questionable structure, with a messy stage performance.
• Towards the end, he is off-key.
• I can’t see the audience for this song pushing it to the top 10.
• Prediction: Not Qualifying

#15. 🇨🇾 Cyprus: Theo Evan – Shh

• Theo Evan will perform an EDM song.
• Its biggest competition will probably be Belgium, who delivers a song in a similar genre.
• The performance features 2 main props: Two scaffolding towers, which create a memorable and impressive moment visually.
• The performance refers to Da Vinci’s Vitruvian Man.
• Closing the semi-final is a pimp spot, which will increase its chances.
• Having said so, I was quite disappointed with the vocals and the camera angles.
• Prediction: Qualifying for the final (MIGHT BE a surprise Non-Qualifier)

Prediction

I believe that 9 certain qualifiers are:

1. 🇸🇪Sweden: KAJ – Bara bada bastu
2. 🇺🇦Ukraine: Ziferblat – Bird of Pray
3. 🇦🇱Albania: Shkodra Elektronike – Zjerm
4. 🇧🇪Belgium: Red Sebastian – Strobe lights
5. 🇳🇱The Netherlands: Claude – C’est La Vie
6. 🇵🇱Poland: Justyna Steczkowska – Gaja
7. 🇪🇪Estonia: Tommy Cash – Espresso Macchiato
8.  🇮🇸Iceland: VÆB – RÓA
9. 🇳🇴Norway: Kyle Alessandro – Lighter

One of the following acts will qualify as well:

1. 🇨🇾Cyprus: Theo Evan – Shh
2. 🇸🇲San Marino: Gabry Ponte – Tutta l’Italia

Meanwhile, we might have a not-so-likely surprise from Slovenia: Klemen – How Much Time Do We Have Left

If I have to choose only 10, I will put:

1. 🇸🇪Sweden: KAJ – Bara bada bastu
2. 🇺🇦Ukraine: Ziferblat – Bird of Pray
3. 🇦🇱Albania: Shkodra Elektronike – Zjerm
4. 🇧🇪Belgium: Red Sebastian – Strobe lights
5. 🇳🇱The Netherlands: Claude – C’est La Vie
6. 🇵🇱Poland: Justyna Steczkowska – Gaja
7. 🇪🇪Estonia: Tommy Cash – Espresso Macchiato
8. 🇳🇴Norway: Kyle Alessandro – Lighter
9.  🇮🇸Iceland: VÆB – RÓA
10. 🇸🇲San Marino: Gabry Ponte – Tutta l’Italia

What is your prediction for the 10 qualifiers?

Eurovision 2025 will be held in Basel, Switzerland on the 13th, 15th, and 17th of May 2025.
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