Eurovision 2024 Semi-Final 1 Prediction

15 countries will take part in the first semi-final on the 7th of May 2024.
Only 10 of them will advance to the final, based on public voting only.
In this article, I will try to predict the 10 qualifiers for semi-final 1:

🇨🇾 Cyprus: Silia Kapsis – Liar

• It is a dance pop song. There isn’t anything innovative about this one, but it might have a general pop appeal.
• Silia will be accompanied by 4 male dancers on stage. She wore a white outfit, composed of a white fabric crop top and white pants with tiny silver dots.
• They will wear a white over-sized T-shirt and black wide pants, and will pull off their shirts in the final chorus.
• It will be a high tempo energetic performance, with a dance break before the bridge.
• Opening the semi-final looks like a good allocation that might push it to a better place.
• Prediction: Most Likely to Qualify

🇷🇸 Serbia: Teya Dora – Ramonda

• Teya will wear a dark grey-purple lilac dress with black decorated sleeves featuring some silver rings on top. The lower part of the dress features a kind of trail/cape.
• The main prop on stage will be a huge rock and some smoke.
• Teya will bring one of the most vulnerable ballads this year.
• It is the kind of song that usually works better with the jury, but I believe its quality will arise among a lot of different and upbeart acts
• I feel like the staging serves the song and we can rely on Teya delivering it vocally. However, I don’t see this smashing the televote.
• My only fear is related to the 2nd spot in the allocation draw, as well as the song in a intenate ballad that doesn’t always do well with the public
• Prediction: Most Likely to Qualify

🇱🇹 Lithuania: Silvester Belt – Luktelk

• It is an electro dance song, performed in Lithuanian language.
• Silvester Belt chose to continue with the same outfit as the one in the national selection: It is a red leather suit. He also wears black shoes with the printing “Luktelk”. He will be accompanied by 4 male dancers on stage. They wear black masks that look like hoods, covering their heads.
• The performance is similar to the one we’ve seen in  “Eurovizija.LT 2024“.
• I think it is one of the most contemporary songs in this semi-final. In addition, we can easily find people who will vote for this kind of a song.
• Lithuania tends to do well with the public vote, also thanks to their big diaspora (Ireland, The UK, Rest of The World) and friendly voting (Poland and Ukraine).
• Prediction: Qualifying

🇮🇪 Ireland: Bambie Thug – Doomsday Blue

• It is a dark alt pop with metallic and electronic influences.
• Bambie Thug will wear a black outfit. Their lips are colored in black lipstick, while their face is covered in white makeup, with black paint. Part of her outfit is made of black cones. They will also wear a tutu skirt. Her hair is dressed into horns. Babmie will be accompanied by a bare-chested ballet dancer, with his body and face painted in blue/black.
• The performance will feature a lot of camera angles, a set of a horror movie and a circle of candles
• I would mark this as one of the dark horses in this year’s contest. Performance and visuals are convincing, therefore it might stand out.
• Ireland have struggled a lot in recent years, qualifying for the final only once between 2014 and 2023.
• Prediction: Qualifying

🇺🇦 Ukraine: Alyona Alyona & Jerry Heil – Teresa & Maria

• It is a mid-tempo ethnic ballad with rap elements, performed in Ukrainian and English.
• Jerry will wear a khaky/off white dress with a white top, while Alyona wore a shiny dark gray coat.
• The staging will be different from the one in “Vidbir 2024“. The main prop on stage will be a sloppy rock. Jerry Heil climbs this rock platform, while the wind machine blows her hair.
• The lighting will be based on rich beams.
• The song is catchy, but also preserves a high level of emotions conveying.
• We all know that Ukraine is a power house when it comes to staging (and also: this is the only country that has never failed to qualify for the final).
• Prediction: Qualifying (Top 2 of the semi-final).

🇵🇱 Poland: Luna – The Tower

• It Is a mid-tempo indie-pop song.
• Luna will wear a red and white outfit: It is composed of 2 parts: White short trousers with red shiny sequins and white shirt in the same design. There are 2 red cones on her shoulders and she wears red boots. Initially, she will also wear a cape.
• The main props will be 2 giant neon chess rooks that roll across the stage.
• She will be accompanied by 3 dancers on stage, they will appear faceless and in 3 different outfit colors: red, white and black.
• The song is radio-friendly, but I feel like it isn’t that impactful.
• The main drawback might be the vocal which are shaky in the live performace.
• In addition, Poland is allocated in the 6th position (between 2 strong acts in this semi-final).
• On the other hand, this is probably the most friendly-voting semi-final for Poland. The country is expected to get votes from: Ukraine, Lithuania, the UK, Ireland, and Germany
• Prediction: Borderline (can either qualify or not)

🇭🇷 Croatia: Baby Lasagna – Rim Tim Tagi Dim

• It is a techo trap pop song with metal rock influences.
• Baby Lasagna will wear a traditional outfit: white pants, black leather shoes, the base top is white with giant frilly sleeves and some decorations. On top, he wears a red bolero with yellow decorations and black collar. In addition, his pants feature silver shackle chains.
• The dancers will wear white and black outfits
• The performance features rich video art, neon farm animals and some dancing cats.
• Traditional dance moves were kept for the Eurovision performance as well.
• It is one of the boldest songs this year, with high chances to grab a lot of public votes.
• Croatia might achieve its best achievements in the modern era.
• Prediction: Qualifying (Top 2 of the semi-final).

🇮🇸 Iceland: Hera Björk – Scared of Heights

• It is a power pop song, with light schlager influences.
• Hera Björk will wear a golden sparkly dress. She will be accompanied by 5 backing singers in black elegant outfits with golden decorations.
• The song is listenable, but I feel like it isn’t catchy enough besides the “I see it coming” phrase.
• Sadly, I think this one doesn’t stand a chance to qualify. Coming after Croatia, it might even be forgotten.
• Prediction: Not Qualifying

🇸🇮 Slovenia: Raiven – Veronika

• It is a mid-tempo electro dark pop ballad with opera elements.
• Raiven will wear a black transparent outfit with silver leaf decorations.
• She will be accompanied by 5 backing dancers, who wear “nude” bodysuits. They dance around her in the genre of contemporary dance.
• The song is epic and mysterious, supported by her charisma and divine voice. I would easily classify her as one of the best vocalists this year.
• However, we should mention 2 things here: First of all, Slovenia doesn’t excel in getting the support of the public vote. Second of all, some people find her opera singing and powerful vocals as over the place (not me, though!)
• Prediction: Borderline (can either qualify or not)

🇫🇮 Finland: Windows95man – No Rules!

• It is a dance pop-rap song with wide influences of the 1990’s music.
• Windows95man will wear brown sandals with white socks, a very tiny underwear in body color (may we add: too provocative), a white T-shirt with blurred Windows logo and a very long colorful wool coat (with the Windows colors: red, yellow, blue and red). Henri will wear the same outfit as in the “UMK 2024″ performance: Blue jeans rectangular torn fabric.
• The song aims more for the humoristic direction, so great vocals aren’t part of the package.
• I believe that the different style and concept might be appealing for some people, as well as the throwback to the 1990’s music.
• On the level of “entertaining”/”joke” entries, it might do well with the public (they jury might be a different story).
• Prediction: Qualifying

🇲🇩 Moldova: Natalia Barbu – In the Middle

• It is a mid-tempo ballad with ethnic elements.
• Natalia will be alone on stage and wear a white dress, with a brown belt. The upper part of the outfit will expose parts of her body. She will also have a golden decoration over one of her shoulders. She will have a white violin with her.
• I feel like the staging upgraded this one, in the sense of emphasizing the classic and elegant character of if.
• However, I’m afraid the song doesn’t stand out on the the level of studio-cut.
• Moldova usually tends to do better when sending more entertainment or songs with stronger ethnic bases.
• Therefore, I can see s room where it qualifies, but the opposite is even more possible. On the negative side, I think the running order isn’t on Moldova’s side: After Finland and before Sweden (as an automatic qualifier).
• Prediction: Borderline (can either qualify or not)

🇦🇿 Azerbaijan: Fahree feat. Ilkin Dovlatov – Özünlə Apar

• It is an ethnic mid-tempo song. It also features Mugham singing by Ilkin.
• Fahree will wear silver shiny pants and a black silver jacket with some geometrical features. Ilkin will wear black pants and a kind of elegant jacket with sparkly glitter sequins.
• The main prop on stage will be a pair of 2 big black hands.
• For the very first time, Azerbaijan sends a song which its majority is in the local language.
• Sonically, this is one of the 3 songs is this semi-final with some ethnic elements (Ukraine and Moldova as well).
• However, I feel like the song hasn’t convinced most of the people. I’m afraid some people won’t be able to connect to the mugham part.
• I also find the connection between the 2 singers almost random, relying on the staging concept.
• It isn’t a secret that Azerbaijan has struggled with televotes in recent years.
• Prediction: Not Qualifying

🇦🇺 Australia: Electric Fields – One Milkali (One Blood)

• It is a mid-tempo electro/synth pop song.
• Zaachariaha Fielding will wear a white dress with head coverage and a kind of free cut of a garment. Michael Ross will wear a shirt and suitable pants: White with purple. gold, black and silver paints.
• The duo will be accompanied by 2 backing singers and didgeridoo player.
• I think the structure of the song isn’t an usual one, and it isn’t for good.
• The vocal performance is sometimes too pushy.
• But my biggest criticism is towards the staging which seems too messy. I’m afraid this one might be a niche for the general voter.
• Prediction: Not Qualifying

🇵🇹 Portugal: Iolanda – Grito

• Iolanda will wear a white and clean kind of outfit and a silver necklace and her nails are colored black.
• The staging is quite similar to the one from the “Festival da Canção 2024″.
• She will be accompanied by 5 backing dancers wearing white outfits with covered faces. They will move around her and behind her in a contemporary dance.
• It is a very spiritual song, with a quite engaging staging concept.
• Iolanda sings it accurately.
• The only question here is will it be enough to enter the top 10 of the semi-final? I believe that being allocated towards the end will help her, as well as the expected high ranking from the Luxembourg public (a lot of diaspora from Portugal).
• Prediction: Most Likely to Qualify

🇱🇺 Luxembourg: Tali – Fighter

• It is a mid-tempo contemporary pop ballad, performed in 2 languages (French and English)
• Tali will wear a summer colorful (purple, blue, black, red) dress with geometrical figures.
• Tali will be accompanied by 5 backing dancers, wearing different red outfits.
• Luxembourg returned to the contest after a long break of 31 years. They have been alloctaed to perform last in the running order, and this might help as well.
• Tali’s voice and the summer vibe of the song may attract some of the voters (but not enough to smash the televore). The staging and strong vocals will help to make it memorable.
• Prediction: Qualifying

Final Prediction

This year is one of the most challenging to predict. If I have to reduce my list to 10 qualifiers only, I would say (in a random order):

• Ukraine
• Croatia
• Lithuania
• Ireland
• Finland
• Cyprus
• Luxembourg
• Portugal
• Serbia
• Poland (mainly due to diaspora)

More precisely, I believe the full ranking will be something like this:

Place	Country
1-2	Croatia/Ukraine
3	Ireland
4-5	Lithuania/Finland
6-7	Cyprus/Luxembourg
8-10	Poland/Portugal/Serbia
11-12	Slovenia/Moldova (one of them might actually qualify)
13-15	Australia/Azerbaijan/Iceland

Eurovision 2024 will be held in Malmö, Sweden.
The semi-finals will be held on the 7th and 9th of May 2024, and the grand final will be held on the 11th of May 2024.

Don’t forget to visit our Eurovision 2024 homepage