Semi-Finals Allocation Draw: What We Can Expect Based On History Analysis

A few minutes ago, the ceremony of  Semi-Finals Allocation Draw and host city Insignia was held. The ceremony was hosted by Eurovision 2020 hosters:
 Edsilia RombleyChantal Janzen, and Jan Smit.

Description of The Process
The 35 countries that participate in the semi-finals were divided into 5 pots. Each pot contains 7 countries, based on historical voting patterns as calculated by the contest’s official televoting partner Digame.
The meaning of the process is splitting each pot to 2 “halves”, so only half of each pot will participate in a specific semi-final.
Due to an odd number of semi-finalists, The EBU has decided in advance that 17 countries will participate in semi-final 1, while 18 countries will participate in semi-final 2.

Similarly, the 6 automatic qualifiers of Eurovision 2020 (“Big5” + the host country) were divided into 2 equal-sized groups. 3 among them will broadcast and vote in the first semi-final and the other 3 countries will broadcast and vote in the second semi-final.

At first, a country gets an allocation in one of the semi-finals. Thereafter, the country gets an allocation of which half of the show, the country will perform in.

Reminder: The Pots

Pot 1 (Albania, Croatia, North Macedonia, Serbia, Slovenia, Austria, Switzerland)
Eurovision 2020 pot 1)

Pot 2 ( Sweden, Denmark, Norway, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Australia)
Eurovision 2020 pot 2

Pot 3 (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, Russia, Ukraine)
Eurovision 2020 pot 3

Pot 4 (Bulgaria, Cyprus, Greece, Malta, Portugal, Romania, San Marino)
Eurovision 2020 pot 4

Pot 5 (Belgium, Czech Republic, Ireland, Israel, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland)
Eurovision 2020 pot 5

The allocation draw process has started with the big 5 + host country allocation:
Italy, Germany and The Netherlands will broadcast and vote in semi-final 1.
France, UK, and Spain will broadcast and vote in semi-final 2.

eurovision 2020 allocation of 6 finalists

Semi-final 1:  17 countries, will be held on the 12th of May 2020

Eurovision 2020 semi final 1 allocation

#1.  8 countries will perform in the first half of the first semi-final:
North Macedonia, Belarus, Lithuania, Sweden, Slovenia, Australia, Ireland, and Russia.

#2.  9 countries will perform in the second half of the first semi-final:
Norway, Cyprus, Croatia, Azerbaijan, Malta, Israel, Ukraine, Romania, and Belgium.

#3. Semi-final 1 can be seen as a union of 5 subgroups. The division arises from the pots:

Pot 1 – North Macedonia, Slovenia, Croatia
Pot 2 – Sweden, Australia, Norway
Pot 3 – Belarus, Russia, Azerbaijan,  Ukraine
Pot 4 – Cyprus, Malta, Romania
Pot 5 – Lithuania, Ireland, Israel, Belgium.

#4. Norway usually performs in the second semi-final. The last time when Norway performs in the first semi-final, was back in 2011 when Noway didn’t qualify for the final.

#5. Let’s calculate the average percentages of qualifying of the countries in semi-final 1, based on Eurovision results history since 2004:

Ukraine, Australia = 100%
Azerbaijan, Russia, Sweden = 90.9%
Romania = 83.3%
Norway = 76.9%
Cyprus, Israel = 57.1%
Lithuania = 53.3%
Malta = 50%
Croatia = 46.2%
Ireland = 42.9%

Belarus, North Macedonia, Slovenia = 37.5%
Belgium = 33.3%

The average percentages of qualifying of semi-final 1 participants are: 63.8%

#6. The first semi-final includes some strong countries (regarding their qualifying history): Ukraine, Australia, Azerbaijan, Russia, Sweden, Romania, and Norway.

#7. Another interesting measure can be the amount of supporting countries for each country. To calculate that, we will consider the voting history since 1975.
For each country, I have searched for the Top 10 other countries that tend to give it their votes:

#Australia – 5 among 10 countries that tend to vote for Australia, will vote in the first semi-final:  Sweden,  Israel, Norway, Belgium, Germany.

Azerbaijan5 among 10 countries that tend to vote for Azerbaijan, will vote in the first semi-final:  Russia,  Ukraine, Malta, Romania, Cyprus.

Belarus5 among 10 countries that tend to vote for Belarus will vote in the first semi-final:  Ukraine, Russia, Azerbaijan, Lithuania, Israel.

Belgium – 3 among 10 countries that tend to vote for Belarus will vote in the first semi-final:  Australia, The Netherlands, Lithuania

Croatia5 among 10 countries that tend to vote for Croatia will vote in the first semi-final:  Slovenia, North Macedonia, Germany, Ukraine, Malta.

Cyrpus3 among 10 countries that tend to vote for Cyrpus will vote in the first semi-final: Malta, Russia, Croatia

Ireland – 5 among 10 countries that tend to vote for Ireland will vote in the first semi-final:  Sweden, Belgium, Australia, Norway, Italy

 Israel –  4 among 10 countries that tend to vote for Israel will vote in the first semi-final: Azerbaijan, Australia, The Netherlands, Germany.

Lithuania – 5 among 10 countries that tend to vote for Ireland will vote in the first semi-final: Ireland, Norway, Belarus, Australia, Ukraine

Malta – 6 among 10 countries that tend to vote for Malta will vote in the first semi-final:  Azerbaijan, Italy, Croatia, North Macedonia, Ireland, Australia

North Macedonia –  3 among 10 countries that tend to vote for North Macedonia  will vote in the first semi-final: Croatia, Slovenia, Azerbaijan

Norway –  4 among 10 countries that tend to vote for North Macedonia  will vote in the first semi-final: Sweden, Lithuania, Belarus, Russia

Romania – 5 among 10 countries that tend to vote for Romania will vote in the first semi-final: Israel, Italy, Azerbaijan, Cyprus, Ireland

Russia – 6 among 10 countries that tend to vote for Russia will vote in the first semi-final:  Belarus, Azerbaijan, Ukraine, Israel, Lithuania, Cyprus

Slovenia – 4 among 10 countries that tend to vote for Slovenia will vote in the first semi-final: Croatia, North Macedonia, Russia, Ukraine

Sweden 5 among 10 countries that tend to vote for Sweden will vote in the first semi-final: Norway, Australia, Malta, Slovenia, Lithuania


# Ukraine4 among 10 countries that tend to vote for Ukraine will vote in the first semi-final:  Azerbaijan, Belarus, Italy, Russia

Semi-final 2:  18 countries, will be held on the 14th of May 2020

Eurovision 2020 semi final 2 allocation

#1.  9 countries will perform in the first half of the second semi-final:
Austria, Moldova, Poland, San Marino, Serbia, Iceland, Czech Republic, Greece, Estonia.

#2.  9 countries will perform in the second half of the second semi-final:
Denmark, Bulgaria, Switzerland, Finland, Armenia, Latvia, Georgia, Portugal, Albania

#3. Semi-final 2 can be seen as a union of 5 subgroups. The division arises from the pots:

Pot 1 – Austria, Serbia, Switzerland, Albania.
Pot 2 –  Iceland, Estonia, Denmark, Finland.
Pot 3 – Moldova, Armenia, Georgia
Pot 4 – San Marino, Greece, Bulgaria, Portugal
Pot 5 – Poland, Czech Republic, Latvia.

#4. Let’s calculate the average percentages of qualifying of the countries in semi-final 2, based on Eurovision results history since 2004:

Greece = 84.6%
Armenia = 75%
Serbia =75%

Denmark= 71.4%
Moldova = 64.3%
Georgia = 58.3%
Albania, Iceland = 53.3%
Austria = 50%
Finland = 46.7%
Estonia =46.7%
Poland = 38.5%
Czech Republic = 37.5%
Latvia, Bulgaria = 33.3%
Portugal =33.3%
Switzerland = 26.7%
San Marino = 26.7%

The average percentages of qualifying of semi-final 2 participants are: 47.5%

#5. The second semi-final can be charactered as “Everything is possible”. The explanation is that there isn’t any significantly strong country in this semi-final.

#6. Another interesting measure can be the amount of supporting countries for each country. To calculate that, we will consider the voting history since 1975.
For each country, I have searched for the Top 10 other countries that tend to give it their votes:

Albania4 among 10 countries that tend to vote for Albania will vote in the second semi-final: Greece, Switzerland, San Marino, Austria

Armenia 5 among 10 countries that tend to vote for Armenia will vote in the second semi-final: Georgia, France, Bulgaria, Greece, Czech Republic

Austria 6 among 10 countries that tend to vote for Armenia will vote in the second semi-final: Bulgaria, Georgia, Estonia, United Kingdom, Iceland, Switzerland

Bulgaria6 among 10 countries that tend to vote for Bulgaria will vote in the second semi-final: Cyprus, Spain, Albania, Greece, Serbia, Austria

Czech Republic4 among 10 countries that tend to vote for the Czech Republic will vote in the second semi-final: Austria, Spain, Iceland, Estonia

Denmark3 among 10 countries that tend to vote for Denmark will vote in the second semi-final: Iceland, Estonia, Latvia

Estonia7 among 10 countries that tend to vote for Estonia will vote in the second semi-final: Latvia, Finland, Iceland, Portugal, Georgia, Denmark, United Kingdom

Finland 5 among 10 countries that tend to vote for Finland will vote in the second semi-final: Estonia, Iceland, Poland, Ireland, Latvia

Georgia 4 among 10 countries that tend to vote for Finland will vote in the second semi-final: Armenia, Greece, Moldova, Latvia

Greece4 among 10 countries that tend to vote for Greece will vote in the second semi-final: Albania, Bulgaria, Armenia, San Marino

Iceland6 among 10 countries that tend to vote for Iceland will vote in the second semi-final: Denmark, Finland, Estonia, San Marino, United Kingdom, Latvia

Latvia6 among 10 countries that tend to vote for Latvia  will vote in the second semi-final: Estonia, Georgia, United Kingdom, San Marino, Poland, Portugal

Moldova3 among 10 countries that tend to vote for Moldova will vote in the second semi-final: Portugal, Armenia, Greece

Poland – 3 among 10 countries that tend to vote for Moldova will vote in the second semi-final: Austria, United Kingdom, Czech Republic

Portugal – 7 among 10 countries that tend to vote for Portugal will vote in the second semi-final: France, Spain, Switzerland, Czech Republic, Georgia, Armenia, Latvia, Moldova.

San Marino 4 among 10 countries that tend to vote for San Marino will vote in the second semi-final: Albania, Georgia, Greece, Moldova

Serbia4 among 10 countries that tend to vote for Serbia will vote in the second semi-final: Switzerland, Austria, Bulgaria, France

Switzerland 4 among 10 countries that tend to vote for Switzerland will vote in the second semi-final: Austria, Finland, United Kingdom, Denmark


Additional Thoughts

Something is interesting in Eurovision 2002 semi-finals allocation.
Some of the “Power Couple” countries were allocated into 2 different semi-finals, so they won’t be able to vote for each other in the semi-finals.
Power Couple” countries are pairs of countries that tend to give each other 8-12 points’ for example, Greece- Cyprus,  Moldova – Romania, North Macedonia – Albania,
Lituania – Latvia and more.

On the other hand, some of the pairs of countries that don’t tend to vote for each other were also allocated in different semi-finals. For example, Serbia- Albania,  Armenia- Azerbaijan and more.

 

 

 

I live in Israel and watch Eurovision since the early 2000s. I work as a mathematician but have a big interest in singing, music, and writing

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